Posts Tagged ‘House Price Index’

Teacher Retirement Plan – Safe as Houses?

Housing Economist Martin Ellis comments:

“House prices in the three months to February were 1.1% lower than in the previous three months. There was a 0.5% decline in prices in February, largely offsetting January’s 0.6% rise.”

“Overall, prices nationally are at broadly the same level as last spring. This stability in prices is explained by the fact that market conditions have changed very little over this period with demand supported by low interest rates and supply remaining tight”

“Falling inflation should relieve some of the pressure on household finances over the coming months. Many of the economic statistics released in recent weeks have also been encouraging, suggesting that the UK may avoid slipping back into recession. These developments are positive for the housing market outlook. Significant uncertainties, however, persist and the prospects for house prices during 2012 will, to a large extent, depend on events in the Eurozone and the potential knock-on effects on the UK.”

Teacher Retirement Plan – Key Facts

House prices in the three months to February were 1.1% lower than in the previous three months. This was a little lower than in January (-0.9%) and the fifth consecutive month that this measure of the underlying trend has been slightly negative(0.1%).

On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 0.5% in February. This followed January’s 0.6% increase and continues the mixed monthly pattern seen over the past year.

Prices in the three months to February were 1.9% lower than in the same period a year earlier. This measure of the annual rate was little changed from the previous month (-1.8%) and has been between -1% and -2% for the last five months.

Nationally, the average level of house prices is very little changed to last spring. The UK average price in February, at £160,118, was similar to that in April 2011 (£160,393).

* The Halifax House Price Index is the UK’s longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. From this data, a “standardised” house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.

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Housing Market Conditions

UK Housing market conditions changed only slightly over the past 12 months and market conditions have been largely unchanged since November 2010. This stability in the overall supply/demand balance in the market helps to explain the modest movement in house prices.

A Slight Rise in House Sales

The number of completed house sales has risen to its highest levels of 2011 in October and November. The number of sales in November 2011 was the highest since December 2009, at a seasonally adjusted 79,000. Despite these recent signs
of improvement, total sales in the first 11 months of 2011 were 2.5% lower than in the same period of 2010.

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Teacher Retirement Plan – Safe as Houses?

Housing Economist Martin Ellis comments:

“House prices in the three months to July were 0.5% higher than in the previous three months. This was the first increase in this key measure of underlying price movements for 14 months. Prices rose for the third consecutive month, increasing by 0.3% in July.”

“Overall, there has been little change in either the level of house sales or the number of properties on the market for sale since late 2010. These steady market conditions have helped to stabilise house prices in 2011 following last year’s modest decline.”

“This pattern is expected to continue over the rest of the year with little genuine direction in either house prices or sales. Sustained low interest rates and a slowly improving economy should help to support demand in the face of pressures from weak earnings growth, relatively high inflation and higher taxes.”

Teacher Retirement Plan – Key Facts

House prices in the three months from May to July were 0.5% higher than in the preceding three months. This is the first increase in this measure of the underlying trend since May 2010 (0.1%).

The average UK house price in July was marginally higher (0.7%) than in December 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, at £163,981.

On an annual basis, prices in July were 2.6% lower as measured by the average for the three months to July against the same period a year earlier. This was the second successive improvement in the annual rate from a low of -4.2% in May.

Little change in housing activity trend. The number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase – a leading indicator of completed house sales – increased by 4% between May and June to 48,421; the highest monthly total since May 2010. Despite this encouraging rise, the industry-wide number of approvals remains within the range of 45,000-50,000 per month where it has been since the beginning of 2010. Approvals in the second quarter were unchanged from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.

* The Halifax House Price Index is the UK’s longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. From this data, a “standardised” house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.

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